Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Liam HicksBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lee homered to right (364 feet).9–4
- 6Lopez singled to left, Stowers scored.9–3
- 5Arraez singled to left, Haase scored.8–3
- 5Haase doubled to right, Gilbert scored.8–2
- 5Gilbert singled to center, Ramos scored.8–1
- 4Norby homered to center (418 feet), Caissie scored and Pauley scored.8–0
- 3Hicks hit sacrifice fly to left, Stowers scored.5–0
- 2Pauley singled to center, Caissie scored.4–0
- 1Hicks homered to right center (390 feet), Edwards scored.3–0
- 1Edwards doubled to right, Marsee scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML MIA -115 / SF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- MIA: Elo 47.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −5 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +21 Elo | SF 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.09th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.823rd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–7 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15115th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Elo rating | 149518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 10–15 | 12–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 3–6 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 14–9–2 | 10–12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 10–8 SF in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 18.