Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pages scored on Velasquez wild pitch.4–12
- 6Pages scored on Velasquez wild pitch.4–12
- 6Kim grounded out to first, Rushing scored, Pages to third.4–11
- 6Pages doubled to left, Tucker scored and T. Hernández scored, Rushing to third.4–10
- 5Amaya homered to right center (390 feet).4–8
- 4Pages singled to center, T. Hernández scored, Rushing to second.3–8
- 4Rushing singled to left, Espinal scored, T. Hernández to second.3–7
- 4T. Hernández singled to center, Freeman scored and Ohtani scored, Espinal to third.3–6
- 4Freeman singled to left, Freeland scored, Ohtani to second.3–4
- 4Freeland doubled to left, Kim scored.3–3
- 4Ballesteros homered to right center (374 feet).3–2
- 3Muncy homered to right center (387 feet), Ohtani scored.2–2
- 3Busch singled to right, Amaya scored.2–0
- 2Suzuki homered to left center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML CHC +109 / LAD -132
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 51.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 4.9 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1562 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −24 | CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 1.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +12 Elo | LAD 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.6 | Runs scored | 5.44th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.7 | Margin | +2.02nd of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Road vs home | 9–42nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 148628th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301544 | Elo rating | 15621st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–13 | 13–13 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 13–13 |
| Underdog | 5–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 16–8–2 | 11–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–9 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 21.