Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Xavier EdwardsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsee singled to center, Caissie scored.2–6
- 8Arraez doubled to left, Bailey scored.1–6
- 8Ramos homered to right (365 feet).1–5
- 6Bailey singled to right, Lee scored, Bailey to second, Ramos to third.1–4
- 6Schmitt homered to left center (404 feet), Chapman scored.1–3
- 5Gilbert homered to right (370 feet).1–1
- 3Edwards singled to right, Ramírez scored, Norby to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 50%
- ML MIA -108 / SF -112
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- SF: Elo 54.8%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -102
- MIA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.7 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +7 | MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +33 Elo | SF 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.330th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 5–928th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 24th of 301485 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–15 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 4–6 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 15–9–2 | 11–12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–8 SF in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.