Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting1-4
- Shota ImanagaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Ohtani homered to left center (382 feet).0–6
- 6Tucker scored on pickoff error by catcher Kelly, Rushing picked off second.0–5
- 6Tucker scored on pickoff error by catcher Kelly, Rushing picked off second.0–5
- 6Rushing singled to right, Pages scored, Tucker to third.0–4
- 1Rojas doubled to left, T. Hernández scored and Tucker scored.0–3
- 1Pages hit sacrifice fly to right, Ohtani scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML CHC +107 / LAD -128
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.8%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -116
- CHC +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1566 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −15 | CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.73 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +34 Elo | LAD 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 53.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.41st of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +2.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–5 | Road vs home | 10–42nd of 30 |
| 18th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301540 | Elo rating | 15661st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–14 | 14–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 14–13 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 17–8–2 | 12–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 12–10 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 22.