Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Graham PauleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Max MeyerPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching7.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Schmitt homered to left center (406 feet), Lee scored and Chapman scored.3–6
- 6Gilbert singled to left, Devers scored.3–3
- 6Devers doubled to center, Schmitt scored.3–2
- 3Arraez grounded into fielder's choice to first, Lee scored on throwing error by shortstop Lopez, Arraez to second, Chapman out at second.3–1
- 2Pauley homered to right (362 feet), Edwards scored and Hicks scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 53%
- ML MIA +102 / SF -122
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- SF: Elo 55.7%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- SF -111
- MIA +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.6 – 3.9 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +8 | MIA: Max Meyer: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +40 Elo | SF 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.430th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–8 | Road vs home | 6–925th of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15095th of 30 |
| 24th of 301483 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 11–16 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 4–7 | 9–10 |
| Overs–unders | 16–9–2 | 12–12–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 11–9 SF in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 20.