Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Kyle StowersBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Shohei OhtaniPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith singled to right, Rushing scored, Freeman to third.2–1
- 5Stowers singled to right, Morel scored.2–0
- 2Caissie hit sacrifice fly to center, Ramírez scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML MIA +224 / LAD -280
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.9%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -239
- MIA +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 2.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +6 | MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Shohei Ohtani: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +107 Elo | LAD 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | +2.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–10 | Road vs home | 12–42nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 25th of 301481 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 12–17 | 15–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–9 | 15–14 |
| Underdog | 5–8 | — |
| Overs–unders | 18–9–2 | 13–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–14 LAD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 19.