Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Roki SasakiPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Pages singled to left, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to second.2–3
- 9Muncy singled to right, Tucker scored, T. Hernández to third.1–3
- 3Walker homered to left (372 feet), Burleson scored.0–3
- 3Burleson doubled to right, Herrera scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 54%
- ML LAD -131 / STL +109
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 53.4%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- LAD -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.7 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −21 | +10 | LAD: Roki Sasaki: team allows 1.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +24 Elo | LAD 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.19th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 7th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 8–817th of 30 |
| 24th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 1st of 301563 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 20–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–17 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | — | 18–10 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17–1 | 18–13–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–10 STL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.