Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Call singled to left, Pages scored.4–1
- 8Burleson singled to center, Walker scored.3–1
- 5Freeman singled to center, Kim scored.3–0
- 2Kim singled to right, Muncy scored, Pages to third.2–0
- 2Pages doubled to left, Tucker scored, Muncy to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML LAD -143 / STL +119
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.9%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.3 – 4.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −3 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +48 Elo | LAD 56.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.09th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.8 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 150116th of 30 |
| 1st of 301561 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–18 | 21–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 15–18 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | — | 19–10 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18–1 | 18–14–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 11–11 STL in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.