Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andrew VaughnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman scored on error, Fermín safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Ortiz.6–2
- 9Chourio doubled to right, Frelick scored.6–1
- 8Burleson singled to right, Scott II scored.5–1
- 5Ortiz scored on Pallante wild pitch, Frelick to second on wild pitch by Pallante.5–0
- 5Ortiz scored on Pallante wild pitch, Frelick to second on wild pitch by Pallante.5–0
- 1Vaughn homered to left center (403 feet), Contreras scored and Bauers scored.4–0
- 1Bauers singled to left, Turang scored, Contreras to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML MIL -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 53.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.8 – 3.7 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −6 | MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +26 Elo | MIL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.2 | Margin | +0.19th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 11th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 10–915th of 30 |
| 24th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–15 | 22–13 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 11–11 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16–1 | 18–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 23–17 STL in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 40.