New York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Paul GoldschmidtBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cam SchlittlerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Brewers- Jake BauersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Contreras hit sacrifice fly to right, Rengifo scored.3–4
- 10Chourio reached on infield single to shortstop, Mitchell scored, Rengifo to second.3–3
- 10McMahon singled to center, Schuemann scored, Judge thrown out at third.3–2
- 8Contreras singled to left, Turang scored.2–2
- 7Bauers homered to right center (420 feet).2–1
- 4Goldschmidt reached on infield single to third, Rosario scored, Caballero to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.2–0
- 1Goldschmidt homered to left center (419 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -136 / MIL +113
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.0%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -123
- MIL +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1559 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +18 | +11 | NYY: Cam Schlittler: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · MIL: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.55 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL 0 Elo | MIL 50.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.4 | Runs scored | 5.26th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.9 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 4th of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 11–88th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 149224th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301559 | Elo rating | 15474th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–15 | 21–15 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–13 | 11–11 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–19–3 | 18–17–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 6–4 MIL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.