St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting4-5
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-4
- Griffin CanningPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Winn hit sacrifice fly to left, Burleson scored.6–0
- 5Gorman singled to right, Herrera scored, Walker to second, Burleson to third.5–0
- 5Wetherholt singled to right, Church scored, Winn scored, Scott II scored on fielding error by right fielder Tatis Jr. and Wetherholt scored.4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML STL +119 / SD -143
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- SD: Elo 55.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +2 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +39 Elo | SD 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.29th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–5 | Road vs home | 11–911th of 30 |
| 9th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 148030th of 30 |
| 19th of 301491 | Elo rating | 15236th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–14 | 18–19 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 21–11 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16–2 | 15–20–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–10 SD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.