San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Giants- Casey SchmittBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor McDonaldPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Laureano homered to center (447 feet).2–3
- 6Devers hit sacrifice fly to right, Arraez scored.1–3
- 1Devers singled to center, Arraez scored, Ramos to third.1–2
- 1Schmitt homered to left (396 feet).1–1
- 1Merrill homered to center (436 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 54%
- ML SD -130 / SF +108
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- SD: Elo 52.9%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -118
- SF +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 3.8 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +7 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Trevor McDonald: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +20 Elo | SD 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 12th of 300.0 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–4 | Road vs home | 7–925th of 30 |
| 30th of 301478 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 6th of 301520 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–17 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–12 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17–2 | 14–17–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 26–16 SF in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 42.