Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Miguel VargasBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Sean BurkePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4
- Michael KingPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Peters hit sacrifice bunt to first, Antonacci scored, Quero to second.4–0
- 7Quero singled to right, Meidroth scored, Antonacci to third.3–0
- 6Vargas singled to right, Peters scored and Benintendi scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML CHW +157 / SD -192
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SD: Elo 62.8%, market 62.8%
- Fair odds
- SD -169
- CHW +169 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.4 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | CHW: Sean Burke: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +91 Elo | SD 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.515th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.114th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 15th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 10–79th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 148030th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 15236th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–17 | 16–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 15–12 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–13 | 14–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 2–8 SD in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 10.