Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jorge SolerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jack KochanowiczPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Schanuel doubled to third, Grissom scored, Adell to third.7–8
- 9Soler grounded out to shortstop, Trout scored.6–8
- 7Vargas homered to left (401 feet).5–8
- 7Murakami homered to right center (382 feet), Quero scored and Benintendi scored.5–7
- 7Benintendi doubled to right, Meidroth scored and Peters scored, Quero to third.5–4
- 7Peters singled to center, Antonacci scored, Meidroth to third.5–2
- 7Soler homered to left center (431 feet).5–1
- 5Benintendi grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Peters scored, Quero out at second.4–1
- 4Grissom hit sacrifice fly to center, d'Arnaud scored.4–0
- 2Neto singled to left, d'Arnaud scored, Teodosio to third.3–0
- 2Teodosio doubled to left, Schanuel scored, d'Arnaud to third.2–0
- 1Soler hit sacrifice fly to right, Trout scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 54%
- ML LAA +106 / CHW -128
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CHW: Elo 50.4%, market 53.6%
- Fair odds
- CHW -116
- LAA +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1457 | 1448 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −13 | LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +3 Elo | CHW 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 53.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 23rd of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 4–827th of 30 |
| 1st of 301519 | Opponent Elo | 149619th of 30 |
| 27th of 301457 | Elo rating | 144829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–14 | 12–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–4 |
| Underdog | 13–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 16–13 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–10 CHW in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.