Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Walbert UrenaPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jensen singled to left, Collins scored and Loftin scored, Isbel to second.1–12
- 8Loftin singled to right, Caglianone scored and Perez scored, Collins to third.1–10
- 7Loftin grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Collins scored and Massey scored on throwing error by shortstop Neto, Loftin second.1–8
- 7Massey singled to left, Caglianone scored, Collins to second.1–6
- 6Pasquantino walked, Loftin scored, Jensen to second, Isbel to third.1–5
- 4Adell homered to center (416 feet).1–4
- 3Loftin walked, Pasquantino scored, Collins to second, Perez to third.0–4
- 3Perez singled to left, Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.0–3
- 2Loftin singled to center, Caglianone scored, Massey to third.0–2
- 2Perez homered to left (371 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- KC 55%
- ML LAA +113 / KC -136
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- KC: Elo 53.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- KC -123
- LAA +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.3 – 4.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −11 | LAA: Walbert Urena (no track record yet) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +24 Elo | KC 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 58.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.627th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.821st of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −1.229th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 7–718th of 30 |
| 1st of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 27th of 301462 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–12 | 12–14 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 6–9 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–13 | 11–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–11 KC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.