Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Royals- Isaac CollinsBatting2-3, 2 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Collins singled to left, Isbel scored.3–6
- 7Adell grounded into fielder's choice to third, Teodosio scored, Trout out at second, Neto to third.3–5
- 7Trout walked, O'Hoppe scored, Neto to second, Teodosio to third.2–5
- 7Neto singled to center, Grissom scored, Teodosio to second, O'Hoppe to third.1–5
- 4Massey doubled to right, Díaz scored.0–5
- 4Díaz doubled to left, Collins scored and Jensen scored.0–4
- 4Collins singled to center, Marte scored, Jensen to third.0–2
- 4Marte hit sacrifice fly, Witt Jr. scored, Thomas out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML LAA -108 / KC -112
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.2 pts
- KC: Elo 55.6%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -102
- LAA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −9 | LAA: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +39 Elo | KC 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.528th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.922nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −1.429th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–929th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 6–722nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301522 | Opponent Elo | 150511th of 30 |
| 27th of 301464 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–11 | 11–14 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 5–9 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13 | 10–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–10 KC in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.