Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Lenyn SosaBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Angels- Oswald PerazaBatting2-3
- Jack KochanowiczPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moncada singled to right, Trout scored, Soler to second, Adell to third.4–2
- 8Jiménez singled to right, Schneider scored.4–1
- 8Sosa doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Clement scored.3–1
- 6Jiménez hit sacrifice fly to left, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–1
- 5Grissom hit sacrifice fly to center, Peraza scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 51%
- ML TOR -105 / LAA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- LAA: Elo 43.8%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAA -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.5 – 4.5 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1462 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | TOR: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Jack Kochanowicz: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +43 Elo | TOR 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.910th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.311th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Road vs home | 4–625th of 30 |
| 25th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15221st of 30 |
| 8th of 301518 | Elo rating | 146227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 8–14 | 14–10 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–4 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 16–4 LAA in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.