Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting3-5, 1 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Grissom singled to right, Schanuel scored.3–7
- 7Schanuel doubled to left, Moncada scored, Trout scored and Adell scored.3–6
- 7Clement singled to center, Lukes scored.3–3
- 7Lukes doubled to right, Giménez scored.2–3
- 7Heineman grounded out to second, Okamoto scored, Giménez to third.1–3
- 5Trout homered to left (428 feet).0–3
- 4Schanuel homered to right center (371 feet).0–2
- 3Adell hit sacrifice fly to right, O'Hoppe scored, Teodosio to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 57%
- ML TOR +124 / LAA -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- LAA: Elo 46.2%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -134
- TOR +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +20 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +26 Elo | TOR 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–7 | Road vs home | 4–725th of 30 |
| 25th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15211st of 30 |
| 7th of 301519 | Elo rating | 146127th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 9–14 | 14–11 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–10 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 6–4 | 13–8 |
| Overs–unders | 11–12 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 17–4 LAA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.