Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Mike TroutBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Reid DetmersPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Royals- Lane ThomasBatting3-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching6.1 IP, 7 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Thomas homered to left center (407 feet), Jensen scored and Garcia scored.9–11
- 10Frazier scored on a passed ball by Jensen, Trout to second on passed ball by Jensen.9–8
- 10Frazier scored on a passed ball by Jensen, Trout to second on passed ball by Jensen.9–8
- 9Caglianone homered to right (409 feet), Perez scored.8–8
- 9Perez singled to center, Pasquantino scored.8–6
- 9Teodosio walked, Peraza scored on a passed ball by Jensen, Adell to third on passed ball by Jensen.8–5
- 7Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to center, Massey scored.7–5
- 7Collins homered to right (349 feet).7–4
- 7Adell singled to center, Soler scored.7–3
- 6Witt Jr. homered to center (427 feet), Thomas scored.6–3
- 5Collins singled to center, Loftin scored.6–1
- 2Soler singled to left, Neto scored, Trout to second.6–0
- 2Neto doubled to left, Frazier scored and d'Arnaud scored.5–0
- 2Frazier doubled to center, Lowe scored, d'Arnaud to third.3–0
- 1Trout homered to left center (381 feet), Neto scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 50%
- ML LAA -108 / KC -112
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.6 pts
- KC: Elo 58.1%, market 50.4%
- Fair odds
- KC -102
- LAA +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.2 – 4.3 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1458 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +57 Elo | KC 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 50.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.927th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.719th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 30 |
| 1st of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 27th of 301458 | Elo rating | 149219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–13 | 13–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 7–9 |
| Underdog | 13–10 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–13 | 12–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–12 KC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.