Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Moises BallesterosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Padres- Ty FranceBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson scored on Miller wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Miller.7–9
- 9Swanson scored on Miller wild pitch, Hoerner to second on wild pitch by Miller.7–9
- 9Hoerner grounded into fielder's choice to second, Shaw scored, Crow-Armstrong out at second, Swanson to third.6–9
- 8Sheets homered to right (422 feet).5–9
- 7France tripled to left, Bogaerts scored and Andujar scored.5–8
- 5Castellanos singled to center, Machado scored and France scored, Castellanos to second.5–6
- 3Andujar grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Machado scored, Bogaerts out at second.5–4
- 3Ballesteros homered to right (404 feet), Bregman scored, Happ scored and Suzuki scored.5–3
- 2Suzuki homered to left center (396 feet).1–3
- 1France hit a ground rule double, Merrill scored and Machado scored, Andujar to third.0–3
- 1Merrill singled to right, Laureano scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 52%
- ML CHC +100 / SD -120
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- SD: Elo 53.2%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.7 – 3.8 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +15 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +22 Elo | SD 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.614th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.47th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 9–43rd of 30 |
| 16th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 147730th of 30 |
| 4th of 301538 | Elo rating | 15295th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 13–15 | 15–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–10 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 17–9–2 | 11–15–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 11–11 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.
- Oct 2SD 1 @ CHC 3PlayoffsPicked CHC 51%Hit
- Oct 1SD 3 @ CHC 0PlayoffsPicked CHC 51%Miss
- Sep 30SD 1 @ CHC 3PlayoffsPicked CHC 55%Hit
- Apr 16CHC 2 @ SD 4Picked SD 50%Hit
- Apr 15CHC 2 @ SD 1Picked CHC 57%Hit
- Apr 14CHC 4 @ SD 10Picked SD 57%Hit
- Apr 6SD 8 @ CHC 7Picked CHC 55%Miss
- Apr 5SD 1 @ CHC 7Picked CHC 51%Hit