Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Munetaka MurakamiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Noah SchultzPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting3-3
- German MarquezPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado singled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Andujar to second.8–2
- 8Andujar reached on infield single to shortstop, Johnson scored, Tatis Jr. to second.8–1
- 8Peters singled to center, Antonacci scored, Hays to second.8–0
- 5Montgomery homered to right center (385 feet).7–0
- 2Murakami homered to right center (413 feet), Peters scored and Romo scored.6–0
- 2Benintendi hit sacrifice fly to center, Hays scored, Peters to third.3–0
- 2Hays grounded into fielder's choice to third, Meidroth scored, Antonacci out at second.2–0
- 2Antonacci singled to right, Montgomery scored, Meidroth to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML CHW +124 / SD -149
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.7 pts
- SD: Elo 62.0%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -134
- CHW +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.7 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1452 | 1527 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −13 | CHW: Noah Schultz: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: German Marquez: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +85 Elo | SD 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.613th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.38th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 10–67th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 148230th of 30 |
| 28th of 301452 | Elo rating | 15276th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–17 | 16–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 14–12 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–13 | 13–15–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 1–8 SD in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.