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Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Padres.TV

Away

Cubs

19-12

5–4

at

Home

Padres

19-11

CHC 49%SD 51%

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Petco Park · MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Padres.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.

SD75%50%75%CHCStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cubs
  • Matt ShawBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Jameson TaillonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Padres
  • Nick CastellanosBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
  • Matt WaldronPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Tatis Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Castellanos scored, Johnson to third.5–4
  • 8Shaw homered to left (351 feet).5–3
  • 6Crow-Armstrong grounded out to first, Conforto scored, Shaw to third.4–3
  • 5Castellanos homered to left center (405 feet), Cronenworth scored.3–3
  • 5Andujar homered to left (387 feet).3–1
  • 4Crow-Armstrong homered to right (357 feet), Shaw scored.3–0
  • 2Amaya singled to center, Conforto scored.1–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Padres 51%

Toss-upMiss
CHC 49%SD 51%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
SD 51%
ML CHC -105 / SD -115
Pre-line forecast
SD 49%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
SD 47%
Ratings vs. market
−4.2 pts
SD: Elo 46.9%, market 51.1%
Fair odds
SD -104
CHC +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CHC 4.5 – 4.5 SD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 9

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHCSDWhy
Team rating15391527Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers+8−20CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.38 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsCHC +22 EloCHC 53.1%
Market-implied ratingsCHC 50.6%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHC 51.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastSD 51.1%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres compared, with each team's league rank
CHCStatSD
2nd of 305.5Runs scored4.713th of 30
14th of 304.3Runs allowed4.315th of 30
4th of 30+1.1Margin+0.37th of 30
4th of 307–3Last 106–48th of 30
11th of 307–7Road vs home10–54th of 30
16th of 301501Opponent Elo147930th of 30
4th of 301539Elo rating15276th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CubsPadres
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHCSD
Run line14–1616–13
Last 105–54–6
Favorite8–1010–8
Underdog6–66–5
Overs–unders19–9–213–15–1
Overs–unders, last 107–34–6

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHC 12–12 SD in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.