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Chicago Cubs at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast

FinalMLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Padres.TV

Away

Cubs

18-12

8–3

at

Home

Padres

19-10

CHC 52%SD 48%

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Petco Park · MLB.TV, Marquee Sports Net, Padres.TV

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.

SD75%50%75%CHCStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Cubs
  • Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
  • Edward CabreraPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Padres
  • Xander BogaertsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Walker BuehlerPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K

Scoring summary

  • 7Crow-Armstrong homered to center (410 feet), Kelly scored and Bregman scored.8–3
  • 7Bregman singled to right, Suzuki scored, Kelly to second.5–3
  • 6Campusano singled to left, France scored, Sheets to third.4–3
  • 6Hoerner doubled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored and Lopez scored.4–2
  • 4France singled to center, Bogaerts scored.2–2
  • 2Bogaerts homered to left (389 feet).2–1
  • 2Swanson doubled to center, Busch scored and Happ scored.2–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Cubs 52%

Toss-upHit
CHC 52%SD 48%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.

Market
CHC 52%
ML CHC -118 / SD -102
Pre-line forecast
CHC 53%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
CHC 47%
Ratings vs. market
−4.4 pts
CHC: Elo 47.4%, market 51.7%
Fair odds
CHC -107
SD +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
CHC 4.3 – 4.2 SD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorCHCSDWhy
Team rating15361530Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers−2+5CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsSD +18 EloSD 52.6%
Market-implied ratingsCHC 53.5%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastCHC 52.6%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastCHC 51.7%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.

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Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres compared, with each team's league rank
CHCStatSD
3rd of 305.4Runs scored4.713th of 30
15th of 304.4Runs allowed4.212th of 30
5th of 30+1.0Margin+0.57th of 30
4th of 307–3Last 107–34th of 30
13th of 306–7Road vs home10–43rd of 30
15th of 301500Opponent Elo147730th of 30
4th of 301536Elo rating15305th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

CubsPadres
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonCHCSD
Run line13–1616–12
Last 105–55–5
Favorite8–1010–7
Underdog5–66–5
Overs–unders18–9–212–15–1
Overs–unders, last 106–43–7

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

CHC 11–12 SD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.