Los Angeles Angels at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Josh LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
White Sox- Drew RomoBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe homered to right center (402 feet).2–5
- 7Antonacci hit by pitch, Murakami scored, Hays to second, Vargas to third.1–5
- 6Romo homered to center (397 feet).1–4
- 4Romo homered to right (377 feet), Antonacci scored.1–3
- 4Adell singled to center, Schanuel scored.1–1
- 2Montgomery homered to right (384 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Angels 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAA 55%
- ML LAA -137 / CHW +114
- Pre-line forecast
- LAA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.5 pts
- LAA: Elo 48.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAA -124
- CHW +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 4.0 – 3.5 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1449 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +20 | +17 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.98 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHW +8 Elo | CHW 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAA 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAA 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.126th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.029th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 5–826th of 30 |
| 1st of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 149520th of 30 |
| 27th of 301456 | Elo rating | 144929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–14 | 12–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 0–5 |
| Underdog | 14–11 | 12–12 |
| Overs–unders | 17–13 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 9–11 CHW in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.