Chicago White Sox at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
White Sox- Derek HillBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony KayPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts reached on infield single to third, Laureano scored, Merrill to third.3–4
- 7Hill homered to center (409 feet), Meidroth scored.3–3
- 4Fermin walked, Bogaerts scored on a passed ball by Romo, France to third on passed ball by Romo.1–3
- 4Machado homered to left center (397 feet).1–2
- 4Andujar homered to left center (407 feet).1–1
- 3Romo homered to right (363 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 60%
- ML CHW +138 / SD -167
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.3 pts
- SD: Elo 63.1%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- SD -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHW 3.6 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHW | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +1 | CHW: Anthony Kay: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · SD: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +93 Elo | SD 63.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 60.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHW | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.516th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.113th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 13th of 309–9 | Road vs home | 10–811th of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 147930th of 30 |
| 27th of 301459 | Elo rating | 15207th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHW |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–17 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–5 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 16–12 | 6–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 14–16–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHW 3–8 SD in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.