San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting2-6, 2 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting4-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Trevor RichardsPitching2.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bohm hit sacrifice fly to center, García scored.5–6
- 9Schwarber doubled to right, Marsh scored.5–5
- 9Lee singled to center, Schmitt scored, Devers to second.5–4
- 6Arraez singled to right, Gilbert scored and Lee scored, Chapman to third.4–4
- 5García singled to left, Schwarber scored and Turner scored, Harper to third.2–4
- 5Devers hit sacrifice fly to left, Schmitt scored.2–2
- 4Ramos hit sacrifice fly to left, Haase scored.1–2
- 1Schwarber homered to right center (446 feet).0–2
- 1Turner homered to right center (373 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 56%
- ML SF +119 / PHI -143
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.8%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -129
- SF +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −1 | SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Tim Mayza (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +48 Elo | PHI 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.327th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.530th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 7–1027th of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150313th of 30 |
| 17th of 301492 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 15–15 | 7–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 5–18 |
| Underdog | 10–11 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–14–3 | 14–14–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–13 PHI in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 25.