San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Luis ArraezBatting1-3
- Tyler MahlePitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting4-5, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turner singled to center, Crawford scored, Marchán to second.0–7
- 8Crawford singled to right, Marsh scored.0–6
- 6Bohm doubled to left, García scored, Stott to third.0–5
- 6García doubled to center, Harper scored and Schwarber scored.0–4
- 6Harper doubled to left, Turner scored, Schwarber to third.0–2
- 4Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Turner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML SF +135 / PHI -163
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.3%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -146
- SF +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −8 | SF: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +16 Elo | PHI 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.628th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 5.628th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | −1.930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 11th of 306–6 | Road vs home | 5–1028th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 17th of 301496 | Elo rating | 150713th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–14 | 6–22 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 4–17 |
| Underdog | 9–10 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–12–3 | 14–12–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–11 PHI in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.