San Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting3-4
- Logan WebbPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Crawford reached on infield single to shortstop, Stott scored.2–3
- 9Stott tripled to right, García scored.2–2
- 1Schwarber homered to right (406 feet).2–1
- 1Schmitt singled to left, Chapman scored.2–0
- 1Arraez grounded out to second, Ramos scored, Chapman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 58%
- ML SF +129 / PHI -156
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- SF +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 3.9 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | −2 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +37 Elo | PHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.3 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 5.428th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.8 | Margin | −1.630th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 6–1028th of 30 |
| 8th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 151011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 14–15 | 7–22 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–4 | 5–17 |
| Underdog | 9–11 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders | 13–13–3 | 14–13–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 12–12 PHI in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 24.