San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Adrian HouserPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bogaerts homered to left (424 feet), Machado scored.5–1
- 7France tripled to right, Tatis Jr. scored and Laureano scored.3–1
- 5Devers homered to left (365 feet).1–1
- 4Sheets homered to right (395 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 52%
- ML SD -102 / SF -118
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- SF: Elo 45.6%, market 51.7%
- Fair odds
- SF -107
- SD +107 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.3 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −14 | SD: Bradgley Rodriguez (no track record yet) · SF: Adrian Houser: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +30 Elo | SD 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 51.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −1.129th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 4th of 309–5 | Road vs home | 8–1025th of 30 |
| 30th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 15097th of 30 |
| 6th of 301522 | Elo rating | 148522nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 17–18 | 18–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 5–5 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 15–18–2 | 15–18–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 27–17 SF in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 44.