San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Xander BogaertsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Giants- Jesus RodriguezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Merrill scored on a balk.10–5
- 8Merrill scored on a balk.10–5
- 8Merrill doubled to left, Song scored.9–5
- 7J. Rodríguez homered to right (339 feet).8–5
- 6Andujar singled to right, Merrill scored.8–4
- 5Castellanos hit sacrifice fly to left, Andujar scored.7–4
- 4Merrill singled to center, Song scored.6–4
- 4Song doubled to center, Campusano scored on error and Castellanos scored, Song safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Adames.5–4
- 4Castellanos singled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.3–4
- 4Bogaerts grounded out to third, Sheets scored, Tatis Jr. to third.2–4
- 2Lee grounded into fielder's choice to second, Gilbert scored, J. Rodríguez out at second.1–4
- 2J. Rodríguez singled to right, Adames scored, Gilbert to third.1–3
- 2Bogaerts homered to left center (391 feet).1–2
- 1Schmitt homered to left (386 feet), Lee scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML SD +123 / SF -149
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- SF: Elo 47.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -133
- SD +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −4 | SD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +18 Elo | SD 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.130th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 12th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.928th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 5th of 308–5 | Road vs home | 8–923rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 15078th of 30 |
| 6th of 301519 | Elo rating | 148822nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 16–18 | 18–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–13 | 5–4 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18–2 | 14–18–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 26–17 SF in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 43.