San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Luis RengifoBatting3-4
- Jacob MisiorowskiPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Sheets homered to right center (389 feet), Johnson scored and Bogaerts scored.3–1
- 5Turang grounded into fielder's choice to first, Frelick scored, Chourio out at second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 60%
- ML SD +139 / MIL -168
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- MIL: Elo 56.7%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -150
- SD +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.1 – 3.9 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −1 | SD: Michael King: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jacob Misiorowski: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +47 Elo | MIL 56.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.23rd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 11th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.43rd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 14–86th of 30 |
| 30th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 7th of 301520 | Elo rating | 15513rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–22 | 23–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 12–12 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–23–2 | 19–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 10–11 MIL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.