San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Miguel AndujarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching2.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon SproatPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Andujar doubled to center, Tatis Jr. scored.4–6
- 6Andujar homered to left (405 feet).3–6
- 4Turang doubled to left, Hamilton scored and Frelick scored.2–6
- 4Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Mitchell scored.2–4
- 4Frelick singled to left, Bauers scored and Contreras scored, Mitchell to second.2–3
- 4Castellanos singled to center, Bogaerts scored and Sheets scored.2–1
- 3Ortiz homered to left center (395 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML SD +124 / MIL -149
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.6%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -134
- SD +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.2 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −7 | SD: Bradgley Rodriguez: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Sproat: team allows 0.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +32 Elo | MIL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 53.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.15th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.74th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.44th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 13–86th of 30 |
| 30th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 6th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15493rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–21 | 22–16 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–16 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 11–4 |
| Overs–unders | 15–23–2 | 18–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 10–10 MIL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.