St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Machado homered to left center.2–4
- 8Herrera doubled to left, Wetherholt scored.2–3
- 5Tatis Jr. singled to right, Song scored and Fermin scored.1–3
- 5France homered to center (405 feet).1–1
- 4Church doubled to center, Walker scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML STL +119 / SD -144
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- SD: Elo 57.9%, market 56.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -129
- STL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.7 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +11 | STL: Dustin May: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +56 Elo | SD 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–5 | Road vs home | 11–1014th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 147930th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15196th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–14 | 18–20 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 10–15 |
| Underdog | 22–11 | 8–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17–2 | 15–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–10 SD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 22.