Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Happ homered to right center (424 feet).2–0
- 6Shaw grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Happ scored, Suzuki out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML CHC +153 / ATL -186
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.7 pts
- ATL: Elo 56.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -165
- CHC +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +21 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 1.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +46 Elo | ATL 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 5.51st of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.0 | Margin | +2.21st of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 309–11 | Road vs home | 14–63rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149424th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 15415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–24 | 32–11 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 19–9 |
| Underdog | 7–8 | 13–2 |
| Overs–unders | 22–17–4 | 18–22–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7–1 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–12 ATL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.