Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting1-4
- Edward CabreraPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Higashioka singled to left, Jung scored, Carter to second.0–6
- 5Foscue homered to left (358 feet).0–5
- 4Osuna singled to right, Pederson scored.0–4
- 4Pederson doubled to left, Carter scored.0–3
- 2Osuna singled to left, Carter scored, Pederson to second.0–2
- 2Jung homered to right center (389 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -130 / TEX +108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- CHC: Elo 55.4%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -118
- TEX +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1551 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −6 | CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +38 Elo | CHC 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.318th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–0 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 7–925th of 30 |
| 14th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15161st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301551 | Elo rating | 150313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–20 | 17–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 11–11 |
| Overs–unders | 22–13–4 | 15–21–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 6–4 TEX in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.