Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chase PettyPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Conforto homered to center (405 feet).4–5
- 9Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.4–4
- 8Steer singled to left, Dunn scored, Steer to second.4–3
- 4Suzuki homered to center (455 feet), Bregman scored and Happ scored.3–3
- 4Hayes homered to left center (366 feet), Benson scored.3–0
- 3Bleday homered to right (394 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 66%
- ML CIN +183 / CHC -225
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.1%, market 66.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -196
- CIN +196 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 5.0 – 6.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | +1 | CIN: Chase Petty: team allows 0.95 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CHC: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +86 Elo | CHC 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 66.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 14–53rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–15 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 13–8 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–12–1 | 20–10–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 23–16 CHC in their last 39 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 39.