Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Moises BallesterosBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Del Castillo homered to center (412 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.4–8
- 7Kelly singled to left, Suzuki scored.2–8
- 7Busch hit sacrifice fly to right, Happ scored, Suzuki to third.2–7
- 5Busch tripled to right, Ballesteros scored, Bregman scored and Happ scored.2–6
- 3Ballesteros homered to left center (389 feet), Hoerner scored.2–3
- 2Kelly singled to center, Busch scored.2–1
- 2Moreno homered to left center (427 feet), Arenado scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 58%
- ML ARI +129 / CHC -156
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.3%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -140
- ARI +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 5.6 – 6.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −4 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +58 Elo | CHC 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.42nd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–10 | Road vs home | 13–53rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 15424th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–13 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 9–11 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–12–2 | 20–10–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–10 CHC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 22.