Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-4
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to left, Happ scored.0–2
- 2Happ homered to right (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML ARI +141 / CHC -171
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.0%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -152
- ARI +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.0 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −23 | −7 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +71 Elo | CHC 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.52nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 12–52nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 14th of 301505 | Elo rating | 15414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–12 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 8–11 |
| Underdog | 14–4 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 18–11–2 | 20–9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–1–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–9 CHC in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.