Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Perdomo homered to left (366 feet), Tawa scored and Barrosa scored.5–6
- 6Barrosa reached on bunt double to third, Fernandez scored, Tawa to third.2–6
- 4Bregman doubled to left, Swanson scored.1–6
- 4Crow-Armstrong scored on Gallen wild pitch, Swanson to second on wild pitch by Gallen.1–5
- 4Crow-Armstrong scored on Gallen wild pitch, Swanson to second on wild pitch by Gallen.1–5
- 4Swanson singled to left, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–4
- 3Vargas singled to right, Barrosa scored.1–3
- 1Kelly singled to center, Happ scored, Busch to third.0–3
- 1Busch singled to left, Bregman scored and Hoerner scored, Happ to third.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML ARI +123 / CHC -149
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.4%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -133
- ARI +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.2 – 3.8 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −9 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +31 Elo | CHC 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 5.53rd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.15th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 11–52nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150216th of 30 |
| 13th of 301506 | Elo rating | 15404th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–12 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 8–10 |
| Underdog | 13–4 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–11–2 | 19–9–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–2–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 12–8 CHC in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 20.