Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael LorenzenPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9McCarthy hit sacrifice fly to right, Johnston scored.4–6
- 9Moniak singled to right, Karros scored, Johnston to third.3–6
- 8Steer doubled to left, Stephenson scored.2–6
- 8Myers grounded out to second, Stewart scored, Stephenson to third.2–5
- 6Steer singled to left, Lowe scored, Bleday to third.2–4
- 5Friedl homered to right center (360 feet), Steer scored.2–3
- 2Lowe homered to center (399 feet).2–1
- 1Freeman homered to right (357 feet), Doyle scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 60%
- ML COL +139 / CIN -169
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 62.8%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CIN -150
- COL +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1417 | 1503 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −9 | COL: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +91 Elo | CIN 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 20th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 9–815th of 30 |
| 4th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 148628th of 30 |
| 30th of 301417 | Elo rating | 150316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–11 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 5–7 |
| Underdog | 20–11 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–18–1 | 18–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–16 CIN in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 21.