Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Reds- Will BensonBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Benson homered to right center (400 feet), Stephenson scored.13–2
- 9Doyle singled to left, Moniak scored.13–0
- 9Beck grounded out to shortstop, Tovar scored, Moniak to third.12–0
- 9Moniak hit a ground rule double, Karros scored, Tovar to third.11–0
- 9Tovar singled to right, Goodman scored and Sullivan scored, Karros to second.10–0
- 7Karros hit sacrifice fly to center, Castro scored, Sullivan to third.8–0
- 7Goodman homered to left (415 feet), Rumfield scored.7–0
- 5Goodman homered to left center (412 feet).5–0
- 3Castro doubled to center, Doyle scored, Rumfield to third.4–0
- 1Sullivan doubled to right, Castro scored, Doyle scored and Goodman scored, Sullivan to third.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 60%
- ML COL +138 / CIN -167
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.1 pts
- CIN: Elo 65.9%, market 59.8%
- Fair odds
- CIN -149
- COL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.3 – 5.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1412 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +1 | COL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brandon Williamson: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +115 Elo | CIN 65.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 59.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.5 | Margin | +0.211th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 21st of 306–11 | Road vs home | 9–711th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 148928th of 30 |
| 30th of 301412 | Elo rating | 150813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–11 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | — | 5–6 |
| Underdog | 19–11 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 11–18–1 | 17–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–16 CIN in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 20.