Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Edouard JulienBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 8Lowe singled to right, Stewart scored.2–7
- 8De La Cruz homered to left center (376 feet), Myers scored.2–6
- 5Julien singled to center, McCarthy scored.2–4
- 3De La Cruz singled to center, Myers scored.1–4
- 3Julien homered to center (403 feet).1–3
- 1Steer homered to left center (411 feet), De La Cruz scored.0–3
- 1De La Cruz reached on infield single to first, Myers scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 64%
- ML COL +163 / CIN -199
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- CIN: Elo 63.9%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -175
- COL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1414 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −7 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +99 Elo | CIN 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.28th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.011th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 21st of 306–10 | Road vs home | 8–715th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149323rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301414 | Elo rating | 150714th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–10 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | — | 4–6 |
| Underdog | 19–10 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 10–18–1 | 16–11–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–15 CIN in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 19.