Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4
- Brady SingerPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Griffin walked, O'Hearn scored, Horwitz to second, Gonzales to third.1–9
- 6De La Cruz grounded out to second, Friedl scored.1–8
- 5Davis homered to left (385 feet), Griffin scored.0–8
- 5Ozuna homered to center (425 feet), Gonzales scored.0–6
- 4Davis homered to center (415 feet).0–4
- 3O'Hearn singled to right, Reynolds scored.0–3
- 3Reynolds tripled to center, Davis scored.0–2
- 1Reynolds homered to center (443 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML CIN +117 / PIT -141
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 48.0%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -127
- CIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −8 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +14 Elo | CIN 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.415th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 3010–3 | Road vs home | 8–921st of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150215th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–13 | 16–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 8–9 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 19–11–1 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 18–24 PIT in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 42.