Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- JJ BledayBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose TrevinoPitching2.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Pirates- Marcell OzunaBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Carmen MlodzinskiPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz doubled to center, Ozuna scored.7–17
- 8Ozuna singled to center, Mangum scored, Ozuna to second.7–16
- 8Hayes grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Benson scored, Stephenson out at second.7–15
- 6Bleday homered to right (376 feet), Friedl scored.6–15
- 5Lowe singled to right, Bleday scored.4–15
- 4Horwitz singled to center, O'Hearn scored, Ozuna to second.3–15
- 4O'Hearn singled to right, Lowe and Reynolds scored.3–14
- 4Reynolds doubled to right, Cruz scored, Lowe to third.3–12
- 4Cruz singled to right, Griffin scored.3–11
- 2Davis grounded into fielder's choice to third, Ozuna scored, Griffin out at second, Horwitz to third.3–10
- 2Griffin walked, Gonzales scored, Horwitz to second, Ozuna to third.3–9
- 2Horwitz walked, O'Hearn scored, Ozuna to second, Gonzales to third.3–8
- 2Ozuna walked, Reynolds scored, Gonzales to second, O'Hearn to third.3–7
- 2Gonzales walked, Lowe scored, O'Hearn to second, Reynolds to third.3–6
- 2Benson homered to right center (414 feet).3–5
- 1Griffin doubled to left, Ozuna scored.2–5
- 1Ozuna doubled to left, O'Hearn scored.2–4
- 1Gonzales grounded out to second, Reynolds scored, O'Hearn to third.2–3
- 1O'Hearn doubled to right, Lowe scored, Reynolds to third.2–2
- 1Lowe singled to center, Cruz scored.2–1
- 1Lowe hit a ground rule double, Bleday and De La Cruz scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 56%
- ML CIN +117 / PIT -141
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- PIT: Elo 51.2%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -127
- CIN +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Carmen Mlodzinski: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +9 Elo | PIT 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 54.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.99th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3010–4 | Road vs home | 9–916th of 30 |
| 29th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 150214th of 30 |
| 16th of 301501 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–14 | 17–16 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 12–7 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 20–11–1 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 18–25 PIT in their last 43 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 43.