Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting1-4
- Chase BurnsPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Braxton AshcraftPitching7.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Cruz singled to center, Griffin scored, Mangum to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 53%
- ML CIN +105 / PIT -126
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 52.1%, market 53.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -114
- CIN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −5 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +14 Elo | PIT 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 53.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.34th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.9 | Runs allowed | 4.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3010–5 | Road vs home | 10–916th of 30 |
| 29th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 150115th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 149617th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–15 | 18–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 12–8 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–11–1 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 9–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 18–26 PIT in their last 44 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 44.