Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Nathaniel LoweBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Busch singled to center, Swanson scored.2–3
- 8Busch homered to right center (427 feet).2–2
- 7Bregman singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored, Hoerner to second.2–1
- 6Lowe homered to right (404 feet).2–0
- 1Bleday homered to right center (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CIN +137 / CHC -166
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 61.5%, market 59.7%
- Fair odds
- CHC -148
- CIN +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.6 – 4.4 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1545 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +8 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +81 Elo | CHC 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 6th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 15–52nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301486 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Elo rating | 15453rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–15 | 17–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 10–12 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–13–1 | 20–11–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 23–17 CHC in their last 40 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 40.