Chicago Cubs at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Rangers- Justin FoscueBatting1-2, 1 RBI
- Kumar RockerPitching3.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Busch doubled to left, Bregman scored, Suzuki scored and Happ scored.7–1
- 6Crow-Armstrong hit a ground rule double, Busch scored.4–1
- 5Foscue singled to left, Carter scored, McCutchen to second.3–1
- 4Suzuki homered to center (419 feet), Happ scored.3–0
- 1Happ singled to left, Conforto scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 54%
- ML CHC -130 / TEX +108
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 52.1%, market 54.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -118
- TEX +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.4 – 4.1 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −4 | CHC: Ben Brown: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · TEX: Kumar Rocker: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +14 Elo | CHC 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 54.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.5 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.213th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 10th of 308–7 | Road vs home | 7–822nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15141st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301549 | Elo rating | 150613th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–20 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–14 | 6–10 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 22–12–4 | 15–20–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 5–4 TEX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.