Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Matt McLainBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Busch walked, Hoerner scored, Suzuki to second, Bregman to third.6–7
- 9Crow-Armstrong homered to left center (375 feet), Kelly scored.6–6
- 9De La Cruz hit sacrifice fly to right, Stephenson scored and McLain scored.6–4
- 9Bleday singled to right, Benson scored, McLain to second, Stephenson to third.4–4
- 9Steer homered to left center (411 feet).3–4
- 5McLain homered to right center (371 feet).2–4
- 4Kelly grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Suzuki scored, Busch out at second.1–4
- 4Suzuki doubled to left, Happ scored.1–3
- 1Happ homered to left center (399 feet), Bregman scored.1–2
- 1De La Cruz grounded out to first, Friedl scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CIN +140 / CHC -169
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.2%, market 60.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -151
- CIN +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −8 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +57 Elo | CHC 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 16–52nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 150413th of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 15463rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–15 | 17–19 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 10–13 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–14–1 | 20–12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 23–18 CHC in their last 41 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 41.