Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Blake DunnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching3.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Cubs- Michael ConfortoBatting3-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shota ImanagaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bleday doubled to shortstop, Stewart scored, Stephenson to third.3–8
- 8Dunn homered to left center (393 feet).2–8
- 6Stewart homered to left center (393 feet).1–8
- 4Ballesteros hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.0–8
- 4Hoerner doubled to center, Amaya scored, Hoerner to third.0–7
- 4Amaya singled to center, Swanson scored and Crow-Armstrong scored.0–6
- 4Crow-Armstrong singled to center, Conforto scored, Swanson to third.0–4
- 4Swanson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Happ scored, Conforto to second, Busch out at third.0–3
- 4Conforto walked, Bregman scored, Busch to second, Happ to third.0–2
- 2Conforto homered to right center (407 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 64%
- ML CIN +169 / CHC -207
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 62.3%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -181
- CIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 5.2 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −17 | 0 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHC: Shota Imanaga: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +87 Elo | CHC 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 5.43rd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.29th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.25th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3010–9 | Road vs home | 17–52nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15473rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–15 | 17–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 6–7 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 16–8 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–14–1 | 21–12–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 23–19 CHC in their last 42 meetings; the forecast called 24 of 42.