Atlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching8.2 IP, 7 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Mateo singled to center, Yastrzemski scored, Smith to second.7–2
- 9Olson homered to center (396 feet).6–2
- 8Muncy homered to right (420 feet), Tucker scored.5–2
- 8Baldwin homered to left center (390 feet).5–0
- 2Dubón doubled to left, Harris II scored, Mateo scored and Murphy scored.4–0
- 2White singled to center, Riley scored, Harris II to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 56%
- ML ATL +119 / LAD -143
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 56.6%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -129
- ATL +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −4 | ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +46 Elo | LAD 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.5 | Runs scored | 5.25th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.5 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+2.1 | Margin | +1.92nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–7 | Road vs home | 13–76th of 30 |
| 25th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149027th of 30 |
| 5th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–11 | 19–20 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–9 | 19–20 |
| Underdog | 11–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 18–19–3 | 17–21–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 8–14 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.